Same as Ever by Morgan Housel

Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes by Morgan Housel is a self-help book published in 2023.

History is filled with surprises that no one could have predicted… but it’s also filled with timeless wisdom that never changes. 

People from a few centuries ago couldn’t comprehend technology today, but they would be familiar with people being influenced by greed, jealousy, fear, tribal affiliations, overconfidence, and more. Housel’s book is an attempt to distill occurrences that never change into pieces of wisdom.

Major Events Hinge on Unforeseeable Moments

• Study history to realize how unpredictable the future is
  • Washington’s escape on 8/28/1776 due to wind direction
  • Lusitania delay led to timing for German attack → pushed US into WWII
• Focus on how people behave, not specific events

Risk Is What You Don’t See

• Surprises are what shape the world – and we’re bad at predicting them
  • COVID, 9/11, Pearl Harbor, Great Depression
• The biggest risks are the ones no one is preparing for
• Nassim Taleb: “Invest in preparedness, not in prediction”

Expectations And Reality

• Happiness is more about expectations than circumstances
  • Technology, wealth, medicine improved → happiness flatlined
  • Rockefeller, the richest in the world, had no Advil, sunscreen, or antibiotics
• Social media amplifies comparisons
  • Olympic studies showed 2nd place feels worse than 3rd

Wild Minds

• Unique thinkers come with both brilliance and baggage
  • Elon Musk defies limits but ignores social norms
• Traits that drive greatness can also cause chaos
• Be careful who you admire

Wild Numbers

• People crave certainty, even when unrealistic
• “100-year” events seem rare, but when you have enough of them, they’re annual
• Media ensures you see every global tragedy
  • Local risk is low, global risk is constant
  • Don’t be shocked if the world always feels broken

Best Story Wins

• Stories persuade more than data
• Wrong ideas well-told can succeed more than right ideas poorly explained
• People want simplicity, clarity, and emotion

Does Not Compute

• Emotions and irrational forces drive most decisions
• Don’t expect the world to be rational
• Innovators often ignore the rules – and that’s the point

Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy

• Success breeds complacency
• Stability creates risk by removing fear
• Example: Drop in infectious disease deaths → poor readiness for COVID
• Know when to stop pushing – accept ‘enough’ risk/return

Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast

• Accelerating a good idea too fast breaks it
• Most things have a natural pace
• Investing: Big gains over time, not quickly

When the Magic Happens

• Stress and crises unlock innovation
  • NASA post-Sputnik, Manhattan Project
• Most life-changing advances come after disaster
• Military often drives innovation
  • Radar, Internet, Antibiotics, GPS, Microprocessors
• Balance stress – too much breaks you

Overnight Tragedies and Long-Term Miracles

• Bad news is sudden, good news is slow
• Progress is invisible in real-time
• People feel losses more than gains

Tiny and Magnificent

• Big change is often the result of many small actions
  • Obesity → snacking, not just large meals
  • Great Depression → multiple minor risks combined
• Invest for sustainability, not just high returns

Elation and Despair

• Be optimistic long-term, pessimistic short-term
• Rational Optimist = Accepts setbacks but believes in progress
• The goal is to survive short-term to benefit from long-term
• Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

Casualties of Perfection

• Imperfection creates resilience and creativity
• Perfecting one skill often sacrifices another
• Free time helps creativity more than hyper-efficiency
• Simplicity and error-margin enable long-run growth

It’s Supposed to Be Hard

• Charlie Munger: “Deserve what you want”
• Shortcuts rarely work for hard things
• Real success often means dealing with discomfort
  • Diet, finance, career, etc

Keep Running

• Harder to maintain an edge than get it
  • Overconfidence
  • Strategies don’t scale
  • Success doesn’t always adapt
  • Luck runs out
• Competitive advantage = temporary, must be renewed

The Wonders of the Future

• Big breakthroughs start small – can’t predict what small innovation will lead to
  • Airplane → Atomic Bomb → Power
• Value of tech includes its potential, not just current use

Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems

• Outsiders only see the highlight reel
• Most people don’t share the hard parts
• Assumptions about others’ lives are often wrong
• Don’t idolize success without seeing the full picture

Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World

• Ben Franklin: “Appeal to interest, not reason”
• Incentives override ethics, logic, and ideals
  • Financial, cultural, tribal
  • Common in law, medicine, investing
• Career incentives = “do something” even when “do nothing” is better

Now You Get It

• Nothing teaches like personal experience
• People change only after being affected directly
  • Ex: Stock crash seems fine – until it happens
• Downturns are complex – affect confidence, not just numbers

Time Horizons

• Long-term thinking is easy in theory, hard in practice
• Requires partner alignment (boss, spouse, client)
• Long-term = collection of short-term decisions
• Flexibility > Forecast accuracy
  • Benjamin Graham: “Margin of safety renders forecast unnecessary”

Trying Too Hard

• Simple things drive most success
  • Finance: spend less, save, be patient
  • Health: sleep, move, eat real food
• Complexity sells better, looks smarter
• Simplicity is often overlooked – but powerful

Wounds Heal, Scars Last

• Physical/economic recovery happens faster than mindset shifts
  • 9/11 → airport security
  • Great Depression → obsession with safety
• Forecasts differ because experiences differ
• Beware of overreaction or overconfidence after rare events