Take More Vacations by Scott Keyes

Take More Vacations by flight expert Scott Keyes argues that regular vacations aren’t just enjoyable – they are essential for health, happiness, and productivity. He provides advice for finding affordable travel options, planning trips efficiently, and making time away from work a priority. By blending research with actionable strategies, he shows how travel can enrich life without breaking the bank.

The Curse Of Expensive Flights

Travel is a top aspiration, yet Americans take fewer vacations than ever
Main stressor = logistics
- Cheap flights ease stress
- Italy for $130 or Japan for $169 is less stressful than $1,300
- More affordable = more frequent + extra money for experiences
Common airfare mental traps
- Loss Aversion: panic when prices rise, rush to book
- Anchoring: think today’s price is high if you once paid less
- Recency Bias: assume recent prices are the norm
- Sunk Cost Fallacy: feel committed once you plan
- Wishful Thinking / Procrastination: delay and miss deals
Most expensive flights can be avoided

The Flight First Method

How most people plan (Destination First)
- Destination
- Dates
- Flights
Flight First Method (for cheap flights)
- Cheapest flights
- Choose destination based on affordable options
- Pick dates based on cheap flight availability
Why Flight First works
- Narrowing choices is like aiming for a small target – odds are low
- Expanding options increases the chances to find affordable flights
- Imagine all flights cost $250 – lowers the barrier to travel

Flexibility

Flexibility = key to cheap flights
Early or last-minute flights tend to be inflated
Goldilocks windows
- Domestic: 1-3 months before off-peak, 3-7 months before peak
- Abroad: 2-8 months before off-peak, 4-10 months before peak
Other strategies
- Great fares disappear quickly – don’t wait too long
- If inflexible, prioritize booking early
- For fixed plans, book Southwest for free rebooking
- Try shifting travel dates or airports to find better deals
- Avoid business traveler trends!

History of Airline Prices

1920s-40s → focus on mail, not passengers
1950s-70s → more mainstream with pressurized cabins, toilets, etc; introduction of multiple fares
1978 → deregulation, significant drop in prices
1980s-Present → rise of budget carriers and diversified revenue streams (premium seats, cargo, add-on fees)
- Corporate contracts and business travel heavily subsidize economy

Pricing

Airfare costs have dropped significantly
- Since deregulation, prices have fallen 50% (inflation-adjusted)
- Average domestic roundtrip: $638 in 1981 to $367 in 2016
- People overpay and assume they’re expensive, while other costs like prescriptions, Disney passes, and tuition have risen more
Why is it so volatile?
- Autopilot Pricing: less inventory = higher prices
- Consumer Demand: fluctuates unexpectedly
- Competition: affects pricing

Flight-Booking Myths Debunked

Myth: Clear Your Cookies
Myth: The Cheapest Fares Are On Tuesday At 1
Myth: The Cheapest Fares Are On August 23rd
Myth: Flights Are Only Cheap Because Of Coronavirus
Myth: The Cheapest Fares Are Last Minute
Myth: Dressing Nicely Will Get You An Upgrade
Myth: Wait For Advertised Sales
Myth: One Airline Is Always The Cheapest
Myth: Flying Was Better Back In The Day
- 1948 NYC to Rome → $9,000 (inflation-adjusted), 20-hour flight
- Today → As low as $248, 8-hour flight with modern amenities

Pro Tips

Greek Islands Trick: Book a cheap flight to a major city then take a budget hop to your destination. Stagger your itinerary for flexibility.
Bookend Technique: Buy outbound and return flights from different cities to save on travel costs (e.g., fly into Hong Kong, leave from Seoul).
24-Hour Rule: Secure a great fare with no cancellation fees for 24 hours, allowing you to rebook if a better deal appears.
Mistake Fare: Airlines accidentally sell flights at extremely low prices. Act quickly as they usually last under 6 hours.
Hidden City Ticketing: Book a longer connecting flight and skip the last leg to save on costs. Don’t check bags and don’t do it repeatedly.
Thanksgiving Travel: Flights are expensive domestically, but international trips may be cheaper (e.g., Dallas to Rome for $300).
Points & Frequent Flyer Miles