Same as Ever by Morgan Housel

Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes by Morgan Housel is a self-help book published in 2023.

History is filled with surprises that no one could have predicted… but it’s also filled with timeless wisdom that never changes.

People from a few centuries ago couldn’t comprehend technology today, but they would be familiar with people being influenced by greed, jealousy, fear, tribal affiliations, overconfidence, and more. Housel’s book is an attempt to distill occurrences that never change into pieces of wisdom.

Enjoy!

Hanging By A Thread
Risk Is What You Don’t See
Expectations And Reality
Wild Minds
Wild Numbers
Best Story Wins
Does Not Compute
Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy
Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast
When the Magic Happens
Overnight Tragedies and Long-Term Miracles
Tiny and Magnificent
Elation and Despair
Casualties of Perfection
It’s Supposed to Be Hard
Keep Running
The Wonders of the Future
Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems
Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World
Now You Get It
Time Horizons
Trying Too Hard
Wounds Heal, Scars Last

Hanging By A Thread

Major events often hinge on random, unforeseeable moments
- Washington’s escape on 8/28/1776 due to wind direction
- Lusitania delay led to perfect timing for German sub attack → helped push US into WWII
Study history to realize how unpredictable the future is
Focus on how people behave, not just specific events
Broaden your imagination when thinking about what’s possible

Risk Is What You Don’t See

Surprises are what shape the world – and we’re bad at predicting them
- COVID, 9/11, Pearl Harbor, Great Depression
The biggest risks are the ones no one is preparing for
Impossible to plan for what you can’t imagine
Nassim Taleb: “Invest in preparedness, not in prediction”
- Right amount of savings = when it feels like a little too much

Expectations And Reality

Happiness is more about expectations than circumstances
- Technology, wealth, medicine improved → happiness flatlined
- Rockefeller, the richest in the world, had no Advil, sunscreen, or antibiotics
- Expectations based on what we see and compare to
Social media amplifies comparisons
- Olympic studies showed 2nd place feels worse than 3rd
- Happiness = What you have ÷ What you expect/need
Keep expectations in check, not just raise your lifestyle

Wild Minds

Unique thinkers come with both brilliance and baggage
- Elon Musk defies limits but ignores social norms
Traits that drive greatness can also cause chaos
Be careful who you admire – strengths often mirror weaknesses

Wild Numbers

People crave certainty, even when it’s unrealistic
“100-year” events seem rare, but when you have enough of them, they’re annual
Media ensures you see every global tragedy
- Local risk is low, global risk is constant
Don’t be shocked if the world always feels broken

Best Story Wins

Stories persuade more than data
Wrong ideas well-told can succeed more than right ideas poorly explained
People want simplicity, clarity, and emotion
Use stories as leverage when communicating complex ideas

Does Not Compute

Emotions and irrational forces drive most decisions
Most choices not made on spreadsheets
- Ex: Why we play sports rather than just predict outcomes
Don’t expect the world to be rational
Innovators often ignore the rules – and that’s the point

Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy

Success breeds complacency
- The paranoia that made you win gets replaced by overconfidence
Stability creates risk by removing fear
Example: Drop in infectious disease deaths → poor readiness for COVID
Know when to stop pushing
- Accept “enough” risk, progress, and return

Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast

Accelerating a good idea too fast breaks it
Most things have a natural pace
Investing: Big gains over time, not quickly
Robert Greene: “Impatience kills creativity”

When the Magic Happens

Stress and crises unlock innovation
- Ex: NASA post-Sputnik, Manhattan Project
Most life-changing advances come after disaster
Military often drives innovation
- Radar, Internet, Antibiotics, GPS, Microprocessors
Balance stress – too much breaks you

Overnight Tragedies and Long-Term Miracles

Bad news is sudden, good news is slow
Progress is invisible in real-time
People feel losses more than gains

Tiny and Magnificent

Big change is often the result of many small actions
- Obesity → snacking, not just large meals
- Great Depression → multiple minor risks combined
Invest for sustainability, not just high returns

Elation and Despair

Be optimistic long-term, pessimistic short-term
- Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist
Rational Optimist = Accepts setbacks but believes in progress
The goal is to survive short-term to benefit from long-term

Casualties of Perfection

Imperfection creates resilience and creativity
Perfecting one skill often sacrifices another
Free time helps creativity more than hyper-efficiency
Simplicity and error-margin enable long-run growth

It’s Supposed to Be Hard

Charlie Munger: “Deserve what you want”
Shortcuts rarely work for hard things
Real success often means dealing with discomfort
- Diet, finance, career, etc

Keep Running

Harder to maintain an edge than get it
- Overconfidence
- Strategies don’t scale
- Success doesn’t always adapt
- Luck runs out
Competitive advantage = temporary, must be renewed

The Wonders of the Future

Big breakthroughs start small
- Edison: Can’t predict what small innovation will lead to
- Airplane → Bomb → Power
Value of tech includes its potential, not just current use

Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems

Outsiders only see the highlight reel
Most people don’t share the hard parts
Assumptions about others’ lives are often wrong
Don’t idolize success without seeing the full picture

Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World

Ben Franklin: “Appeal to interest, not reason”
Incentives override ethics, logic, and ideals
- Financial, cultural, tribal
- Common in law, medicine, investing
Career incentives = “do something” even when “do nothing” is better

Now You Get It

Nothing teaches like personal experience
People change only after being affected directly
- Ex: Stock crash seems fine – until it happens
Downturns are complex – affect confidence, not just numbers

Time Horizons

Long-term thinking is easy in theory, hard in practice
Requires partner alignment (boss, spouse, client)
Long-term = collection of short-term decisions
Flexibility > Forecast accuracy
- Benjamin Graham: “Margin of safety renders forecast unnecessary”

Trying Too Hard

Simple things drive most success
- Finance: spend less, save, be patient
- Health: sleep, move, eat real food
Complexity sells better, looks smarter
Simplicity is often overlooked – but powerful

Wounds Heal, Scars Last

Physical/economic recovery happens faster than mindset shifts
- 9/11 → airport security
- Great Depression → obsession with safety
Forecasts differ because experiences differ
Beware of overreaction or overconfidence after rare events

Check out more Self-Help posts!

Learning From Literature

Table of Contents